While chance and luck play a role in all TCGs, there is often a debate as to whether some games have begun to favor luck rather than skill. If a game requires no luck it becomes deterministic and predictable, punishing new players and being unenjoyable for the audience. Likewise if luck is too prevalent the randomness of results would discourage more experienced players from participating, devaluing any concept of a competitive nature in the game.
In the game of Solforge many players fall victim to the fallacy that luck plays a more important role in their matches, and is the primary reason behind their losses. However the weekly standings and win rates beg to differ. Top performing players manage to keep fairly consistent win rates, suggesting the level of skill within the game outweighs the effects of chance. The intent of this piece is to look at the four main places in which probability and luck actually factor into Solforge:
Order of play
Chance-based card effects
Batch order sequencing
Comparing the aspects behind luck in Solforge and other TCGs, such as Magic and Hearthstone, one might be able to strike an ideal balance between luck and skill that players can attempt to control, and game designers should strive to work around. Remember, when you win it’s due to your skill, but when your opponents win they just got lucky.